EPA Calculator – Expected Points Added
Quick EPA Calculator
What is Expected Points Added (EPA)?
Expected Points Added (EPA) is an advanced NFL metric that measures the value of a play by calculating the difference between the expected points before and after the play. A positive EPA indicates the play increased the team's scoring chances, while a negative EPA means the play decreased scoring probability.
EPA considers game context including down, distance, and field position. For example, a 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-3 has much higher EPA than the same gain on 3rd-and-15 because it keeps the drive alive.
EPA Benchmarks by Position:
- 📊 Elite QB: 0.25+ EPA per play
- 📊 Good QB: 0.15 to 0.24 EPA per play
- 📊 Average QB: 0.05 to 0.14 EPA per play
- 📊 Elite RB: 0.10+ EPA per carry
- 📊 Elite WR/TE: 1.5+ EPA per target
Understanding Success Rate & CPOE
Success Rate: The percentage of plays with positive EPA. This metric shows consistency – a 60%+ success rate indicates an elite player who consistently produces positive plays. A high success rate with moderate EPA suggests reliable, steady performance.
CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected): A QB-specific metric that compares actual completion percentage to the expected completion percentage based on pass difficulty, distance, and coverage. A CPOE of +3% or higher indicates elite accuracy, while negative CPOE suggests struggles with accuracy or decision-making.
Combining EPA with success rate and CPOE provides a complete picture of player performance beyond traditional stats like yards and touchdowns.
How to Use the EPA Calculator for Betting
Smart bettors use EPA to find value in player props and game totals. Here's how:
- 🎯 Player Props: High EPA/play suggests over bets on yardage props
- 🎯 Touchdown Props: EPA in the red zone (inside 20) predicts TD probability
- 🎯 Game Totals: Team EPA trends indicate over/under opportunities
- 🎯 Live Betting: In-game EPA shifts show momentum changes
Use this calculator to track player EPA trends, compare against sportsbook lines, and build data-driven parlays. Players consistently outperforming their EPA averages often represent betting value before the market adjusts.