How to Play NFL Pick'Em — Complete Guide
Master the art of NFL Pick'Em with our comprehensive step-by-step guide. Learn confidence weighting, lock deadlines, and winning strategies to dominate your pool.
Confidence Pick Demo — How It Works
Understanding Confidence Points
In confidence pools, you assign a unique point value (1-16 for 16 games) to each matchup based on how confident you are in your pick. If your pick wins, you earn those confidence points. Strategic allocation is the key to winning your pool!
| Game | Matchup | Your Pick | Confidence Points | Strategy |
|---|
Pro Tip: Allocate your highest confidence points (13-16) to strong favorites with 70%+ win probability. Save low confidence points (1-4) for toss-up games and divisional matchups.
Step-by-Step: How to Play
Review the Weekly Schedule
Each week, the NFL schedule is released with all the games. Most pools include every game from Thursday through Monday Night Football—typically 14-16 games per week.
Pick the Winner
Select which team you believe will win each game straight-up (no point spreads). You must pick a winner—ties are rare in modern NFL rules due to overtime.
Assign Confidence Points
Rank each pick from 1 to 16 (or however many games there are). Your most confident pick gets the highest number. If that team wins, you earn all those points. Each number can only be used once.
Submit Before Kickoff
Enter your picks before the deadline. Most pools lock all picks when the first game of the week starts (usually Thursday night), though some allow changes until each individual game kicks off.
Track Your Score
As games finish, you earn the confidence points you assigned to each correct pick. Wrong picks earn zero points. The participant with the most total points at the end of the week wins.
Tiebreaker (If Needed)
If multiple players have the same score, most pools use a tiebreaker question—typically predicting the total combined points of Monday Night Football. The closest guess wins.
Confidence Weighting Explained
How Confidence Points Work
Confidence weighting is what separates Pick'Em from simple winner-picking contests. Instead of each correct pick being worth the same, you strategically allocate point values based on how confident you are in each outcome.
Example: If there are 16 games in a week, you'll assign confidence points from 1 to 16. Your safest pick (maybe the Chiefs at home vs. a struggling team) gets 16 points. Your riskiest pick (divisional rivalry toss-up) gets 1 point.
High Confidence
Strong favorites (70%+ win probability). Home teams favored by 7+ points. Teams off a bye week against weaker opponents.
Medium Confidence
Moderate favorites (55-70% win probability). Road favorites. Games with clear statistical advantages but some risk factors.
Low Confidence
Toss-up games (50-55% probability). Divisional matchups. Games with significant injury concerns or unpredictable weather.
Lock Deadlines — When to Submit
Critical: Know Your Pool's Lock Policy
Different pools have different deadline rules. Missing the lock time means you forfeit that week's entry. Always check your specific pool's rules!
Full Week Lock
Most common format. All picks must be submitted before the first game of the week (usually Thursday Night Football at 8:15 PM ET).
- Pros: Fair for all participants
- Cons: No flexibility after Thursday
Rolling Lock
Each game locks individually at its kickoff time. You can change picks for games that haven't started yet.
- Pros: Flexibility to adjust based on news
- Cons: Requires more active management
Tie Resolution Rules
When multiple participants finish with the same confidence point total, most pools use a tiebreaker question to determine the winner. Here's how it typically works:
Common Tiebreaker: Total Points
Predict the total combined points scored in a designated game (usually Monday Night Football).
Example:
MNF: Ravens vs. Bengals
Actual Total: 48 points
Player A guess: 45 (3 points off)
Player B guess: 52 (4 points off)
Winner: Player A
Other Tiebreaker Methods
- Split Prize: Divide winnings equally among tied participants
- Season Standing: Award to participant with better overall season record
- Highest Single Pick: Winner is whoever assigned highest confidence to a correct pick
Pro Tip: For tiebreaker total points predictions, research historical scoring averages for those specific teams and weather conditions. Don't just guess—use data!
Quick Reference Guide
DO:
- ✓ Submit picks early
- ✓ Check injury reports
- ✓ Use betting odds as reference
- ✓ Track weather conditions
- ✓ Diversify confidence allocation
DON'T:
- ✗ Wait until Thursday kickoff
- ✗ Assign high confidence to divisional games
- ✗ Follow public consensus blindly
- ✗ Overvalue your favorite team
- ✗ Ignore road/home splits
Tips:
- → Save 13-16 for strong home favorites
- → Use 7-12 for moderate picks
- → Assign 1-6 to toss-ups
- → Consider bye week advantages
- → Trust the data over gut feel
Frequently Asked Questions
Can I use the same confidence points twice?
No. Each confidence point value can only be assigned to one game. If there are 16 games, you must use points 1 through 16 exactly once each. This forces strategic decision-making.
What happens if I don't submit picks in time?
You typically score zero points for that week. Some pools may auto-assign picks (usually favorites in descending confidence order), but this is rare. Always submit before the deadline!
Should I always pick the favorite?
Not always. While favorites win more often, picking some strategic underdogs can give you an edge over the pool. If everyone picks the chalk (favorites) with high confidence, a well-researched underdog pick can differentiate you.
How do I handle Thursday and Monday games?
In full-week lock pools, treat them equally with Sunday games when assigning confidence. In rolling lock pools, you can wait for more injury/weather information on later games, but Thursday games must be picked first.
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Written by Dave Baghi • Updated daily
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