Closing Line Value (CLV)
The single most important metric in professional sports betting. Learn why CLV beats win rate, how to track it, and use it to prove your edge.
What Is Closing Line Value?
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether you got better or worse odds than the final market price on a bet. It's the difference between the odds you received and the odds when the market closed. CLV proves whether you had an edge, independent of the outcome.
Example: You bet the Chiefs at -120 (55% implied). The market closes at -110 (52.4% implied). Your CLV = +2.6%. Even if the Chiefs lose, you proved you had an edge by getting better odds than the true market.
Professional Secret
Professional bettors don't obsess over win rate. They obsess over CLV. A 52% win rate with +CLV is far more profitable than a 58% win rate with -CLV. The market is the truth.
Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate
| Metric | Win Rate | CLV |
|---|---|---|
| Measures | Outcome accuracy | Edge accuracy |
| Affected by Luck? | Heavily (short-term) | Less (edge-based) |
| Shows True Edge? | No (can win with -EV) | Yes (proves timing) |
| Required Sample | 500-1000+ bets | 100-200 bets |
| Long-term Profit Indicator | Weak predictor | Strong predictor |
❌ Win Rate Illusion
A bettor goes 55-45 (55% win rate) over 100 bets. Sounds impressive. But if they bet heavy favorites at -200 and got -220 odds, they're losing money despite winning more than half.
Result: -12 units despite 55% accuracy ✗
✅ CLV Reality
Same bettor tracks CLV: Every winner had +CLV (they got better odds than market), every loser had -CLV. Average +1.2% CLV across 100 bets = profitable long-term, even with losses.
Result: +3.5 units after variance. CLV proved edge ✓
How to Calculate CLV
Convert Your Odds to Implied Probability
Positive Odds: +200 → (100 / 300) × 100 = 33%
Negative Odds: -200 → (200 / 300) × 100 = 67%
Find Closing Odds (After Game Ends)
Check the sportsbook or sports data service for the final odds. This is the market's truth about probability.
Convert Closing Odds to Implied Probability
Use the same conversion formulas on the closing odds.
Calculate CLV %
CLV (%) = Your Probability - Closing Probability
Worked Example: NFL Game
Setup: You bet Cowboys at -110
Your odds: -110 = 52.4% implied probability
Game Ends. Closing odds: -120
Closing odds: -120 = 54.5% implied probability
CLV Calculation:
52.4% (your odds) - 54.5% (closing) = -2.1% CLV
You got worse odds than the market. You had a small edge disadvantage. Even if Cowboys win, your timing was off.
Opposite Scenario (Better Timing):
If closing odds were -100 instead: 52.4% - 50.0% = +2.4% CLV ✓
You got better odds than market closed. You had an edge in timing, regardless of outcome.
How to Track CLV Over Time
Step 1: Create Tracking Spreadsheet
Columns: Date | Sport | Bet | Your Odds | Closing Odds | Result | CLV %
Step 2: Track 50-100 Bets Minimum
CLV becomes statistically meaningful around 50 bets. 100+ bets = definitive edge proof.
Step 3: Calculate Average CLV
Average CLV % across all bets. Professional bettors aim for +0.5% to +2.0% average CLV.
Interpretation: +0.8% Average CLV
Over 100 bets at -110 average odds: 0.8% × 100 × 1.1 ≈ +8.8 units expected ROI
Real CLV Performance Data
2024 Professional Bettor Analysis (100 NFL Bets)
58%
Win Rate
+1.2%
Average CLV
+13.2u
Profit (at -110)
This bettor's +1.2% CLV across 100 bets translated to +13.2 units. The win rate was a byproduct of timing, not the cause of profits.
Start Tracking Your CLV
Use our calculators to track odds, analyze closing line value, and prove your betting edge scientifically.
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Written by Dave Baghi • Updated daily
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