Anytime Touchdown Betting Guide
Master the art of anytime touchdown betting with our comprehensive guide. Learn proven strategies, understand the odds, analyze player props, and discover how to find consistent value in NFL touchdown scorer markets.
Editorially Reviewed
This content has been reviewed and verified for accuracy by our editorial team .
25-35%
Typical Win Rate
-110 to +200
Typical Odds Range
32
NFL Teams
100+
Players Per Week
What is Anytime Touchdown Betting?
Anytime touchdown (TD) betting is a player prop bet where you wager on a specific player to score a touchdown at any point during an NFL game. It doesn't matter when they score or how many times—one touchdown is all it takes to win your bet.
Unlike first touchdown scorer bets which offer higher payouts but require your player to score first, anytime TD bets give you multiple chances throughout the game. This makes them one of the most popular NFL prop bets for both casual and sharp bettors.
Simple to Win
Your player just needs to score once at any point in the game. First quarter or overtime—it all counts.
All Positions
Bet on RBs, WRs, TEs, and even mobile QBs. Every skill position player is eligible for TD props.
Parlay Friendly
Stack multiple TD scorers for bigger payouts. Use our parlay calculator to find optimal combinations.
Why Anytime TD Bets Are Popular
Anytime TD bets offer the perfect balance of winning probability and payout potential. While first TD bets pay more, they hit less than 10% of the time. Anytime TDs give you realistic 25-40% win rates on featured backs and receivers, making them ideal for both single bets and parlays.
Check out today's best anytime TD bets for live odds and up-to-the-minute analysis.
How Anytime TD Odds Work
Anytime touchdown odds are set by sportsbooks based on a player's touchdown probability. Star running backs in high-scoring games might be priced at -120 to -140 (favorites), while backup receivers could be listed at +300 to +600 (longshots).
Example: Reading Anytime TD Odds
Christian McCaffrey (RB)
49ers vs Cardinals
-145
59% implied probability
Travis Kelce (TE)
Chiefs vs Raiders
+135
43% implied probability
Khalil Shakir (WR)
Bills vs Dolphins
+180
36% implied probability
Negative odds (-145) mean you need to bet $145 to win $100. These are favorites with higher win probability. Positive odds (+135) mean you win $135 for every $100 bet. These are underdogs with lower probability but bigger payouts.
Calculate Your Own Edge
Use our expected value calculator to determine if a TD bet offers positive EV. Input the odds and your estimated win probability to see your mathematical edge.
Also check our implied probability calculator to convert American odds to percentages instantly.
Understanding the Vig
Sportsbooks build in a profit margin (the "vig" or "juice") by setting odds lower than true probability suggests. A player with a true 30% chance might be listed at +200 (33% implied), not +233 (30% implied).
Use our no-vig calculator to remove the house edge and see fair market odds.
Position-by-Position TD Analysis
Running Backs (RB)
Highest TD Probability • Most Consistent Bets
Why RBs Are Elite TD Bets
- Goal-line dominance: Lead backs get 60-80% of carries inside the 5-yard line
- Volume advantage: Elite RBs touch the ball 20-25+ times per game
- Game script benefit: Leading teams run more in the red zone
- Pass-catching upside: Many RBs score receiving TDs too
RB Betting Checklist
Pro Tip: Target RBs in games with 45+ point totals who are 3+ point favorites. These game scripts favor rushing TDs and multiple red zone opportunities.
Wide Receivers (WR)
Best Value in Shootouts • Target Share Matters
WR TD Betting Strategy
- Target WR1s in high-total games: 48+ point totals create TD opportunities
- Red zone target share: 20%+ is elite for receivers
- Avoid run-heavy matchups: Weather and game script matter
- Better value as underdogs: Trailing teams pass more in red zone
Elite WR TD Profiles
Key Insight: WR2s and slot receivers often offer better value than WR1s due to inflated odds on star names. Look for receivers with consistent red zone target shares at +180 to +220.
Tight Ends (TE)
Red Zone Specialists • Undervalued Props
The TE Advantage
Elite tight ends like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle combine WR volume with RB red zone usage. They're matchup-proof security blankets in scoring situations.
- High red zone target share (15-25%)
- Often better value than WR1 at similar odds
- Ideal when facing zone coverage
TE Sweet Spots
Elite TEs (Kelce, Kittle): +120 to +160
Mid-tier TEs (Goedert, Hockenson): +180 to +240
Touchdown-dependent TEs: +250 to +400
Best Value: Target elite TEs at +140+ in pass-heavy game scripts
Quarterbacks (QB)
Rushing TDs Only • Mobile QBs Win
QB Rushing TD Strategy
Quarterbacks can only score anytime TDs via rushing (passing TDs don't count for their props). This makes mobile QBs with designed runs incredibly valuable.
- Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts: +100 to +120 (elite value)
- Lamar Jackson: Goal-line package specialist
- Anthony Richardson: Explosive rushing upside
QB Rushing TD Leaders (2024)
| QB | Rush TDs | TD Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 12 | 70.6% |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 58.8% |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 52.9% |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 47.1% |
Important: Passing TDs do NOT count for QB anytime TD bets. Only rushing touchdowns count. Avoid pocket passers like Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady for anytime TD props.
Key Stats for TD Betting
Red Zone Touch Share
The percentage of a team's red zone touches a player receives. Elite RBs see 40-50%+.
Target Thresholds:
40%+: Elite
25-39%: Very Good
<20%: Avoid
Snap Share %
How often a player is on the field. More snaps = more TD opportunities.
Ideal Ranges:
RBs: 60%+
WRs: 85%+
TEs: 70%+
Game Total (O/U)
Higher scoring games = more touchdowns. Target games with 45+ point totals.
Total Impact:
50+: Shootout (best)
44-49: Above average
<40: Low scoring
TD Conversion Rate
How often a player scores when they get red zone opportunities.
Historical Data:
50%+: Elite scorers
30-49%: Consistent
<25%: TD dependent
Opponent Defense Rank
Target players facing bottom-10 defenses in points allowed or red zone TD rate.
Defense Rankings:
Bottom 10: Great spot
11-22: Neutral
Top 10: Tough matchup
Spread & Game Script
Favorites run more in red zone. Underdogs pass more when trailing.
Script Impact:
Favorite -6+: RB boost
Even/Pick'em: Balanced
Underdog +6: WR/TE boost
Where to Find These Stats
Use our anytime TD scorer prediction model which tracks all these metrics automatically. We aggregate red zone data, snap counts, target shares, and defensive rankings to calculate true TD probabilities.
Check live game odds and matchup analysis on our NFL odds page updated hourly throughout game days.
Winning Anytime TD Strategies
Line Shopping is Essential
The same player can be priced at +140 at one book and +165 at another. Over time, this 25-point difference compounds into serious profits. Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks.
Example: Travis Kelce Anytime TD
Book A: +135
Book B: +145
Book C: +160 ✓ Best
Use our odds comparison tool to find the best lines instantly.
Timing Your Bets
Odds move throughout the week. Sharp money typically comes in Wednesday-Friday, while public money floods in Saturday-Sunday mornings. Understanding these patterns helps you get the best number.
Best Betting Windows:
- Sunday AM: Early openers (fades public)
- 90 min pre-game: Inactive lists drop
- Mid-week: Before injury news baked in
Smart Parlay Building
Anytime TD parlays can pay huge, but correlation matters. Don't parlay two RBs from the same team—they eat into each other's touches. Instead, pair players from different games or opposing teams.
Smart Parlay Examples:
- Lead RB + Opposing WR1
- Three RBs from different games
- Two RBs from same team
- Four+ legs (variance too high)
Calculate payouts with our parlay calculator before placing bets.
Weather & Game Script
Heavy rain, snow, and 15+ mph winds dramatically favor rushing TDs over passing. Meanwhile, blowouts shift red zone play-calling—leading teams run, trailing teams pass.
Weather Adjustments:
- Heavy Rain/Wind: Boost RBs, fade WRs
- Dome Games: Neutral, bet as normal
- Cold (<30°F): Slight RB advantage
Value Over Favorites
Just because CMC is -145 doesn't mean he's the best bet. Look for players at +140 to +200 with 28-35% true probability—that's where the real edge lives.
Expected Value Example:
Player A: -140 odds, 58% true probability
+0.8% EV (marginal value)
Player B: +160 odds, 42% true probability
+9.2% EV (elite value)
Calculate your edge using our expected value calculator.
Monitor Injuries & Inactives
When a starting RB is ruled out, his backup's TD odds can stay inflated for hours while the market adjusts. This creates massive value windows if you act fast on injury news.
Injury Impact Timeline:
- 90 min pre-game: Official inactives
- 60 min pre-game: Odds start adjusting
- 30 min pre-game: Market fully adjusted
Advanced Strategy: Game Stacking
If you're betting the Over on a game (say 48.5), consider stacking it with 2-3 anytime TD bets from that game. High-scoring games produce more TDs, creating positive correlation. This strategy works especially well in primetime shootouts.
For example: Bet Over 48.5 + Josh Allen TD + Tyreek Hill TD. If the game goes Over, chances are your TD picks are involved. Check tonight's TD picks for primetime opportunities.
Common TD Betting Mistakes
Chasing Name Value
The Mistake: Betting on star players just because you know their names, regardless of matchup, game script, or odds value.
The Fix: Focus on situation over reputation. A backup RB with goal-line work in a great matchup often has better value than a star WR in a run-heavy game script.
Ignoring Red Zone Role
The Mistake: Betting on players with high yardage potential but minimal red zone involvement.
The Fix: A receiver with 100 yards but 5% red zone targets is a worse TD bet than one with 60 yards and 20% red zone targets. Volume near the goal line is everything.
Overlapping Parlays
The Mistake: Parlaying multiple players from the same team who compete for touches (e.g., three 49ers RBs/WRs).
The Fix: Spread your parlay across different games or opposing teams to reduce correlation risk. Check smart parlay combinations.
Betting Low-Scoring Games
The Mistake: Betting TDs in games with 38-40 point totals or terrible weather conditions.
The Fix: Target games with 45+ totals. Fewer total TDs mean lower hit rates across the board. Prioritize high-scoring environments.
Not Line Shopping
The Mistake: Taking the first odds you see without checking other sportsbooks for better numbers.
The Fix: Always compare odds across 3+ sportsbooks. A 20-point difference (+140 vs +160) adds up to massive profits over time. Use our comparison tool.
Overvaluing Last Week
The Mistake: Betting on a player who scored 3 TDs last week, assuming it will repeat.
The Fix: Touchdowns are volatile. Focus on red zone opportunity share and matchup quality, not last week's box score. Regression is real.
Essential Tools & Resources
Prediction Model
AI-powered TD probability
Today's Best Bets
Live odds & picks
Tonight's Picks
Primetime analysis
Weekly Bets
Full week analysis
First TD Bets
Higher risk/reward
TD Parlays
Smart combinations
Parlay Calculator
Calculate payouts
EV Calculator
Find your edge
Odds Compare
Best lines finder
Live NFL Odds
Real-time lines
Prop Finder
All player props
NFL Schedule
Full season
Bookmark This Page
This is your complete anytime touchdown betting resource. Bookmark it and return whenever you need strategy refreshers, stat explanations, or links to our daily picks and tools. For more betting education, check our sports betting strategy hub.
Live NFL TD Picks
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No Games Scheduled
Check back on NFL game days for live anytime TD analysis with real odds from today's slate.
View NFL ScheduleAnytime TD Betting FAQ
What happens if my player doesn't play?
If your player is ruled inactive before kickoff, most sportsbooks will void the bet and refund your stake. However, if the player starts but gets injured early, the bet stands. Always check your sportsbook's specific house rules.
Do passing touchdowns count for QB anytime TD bets?
No. Only rushing touchdowns count for QB anytime TD props. Passing TDs are excluded. This is why mobile QBs like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are the best QB TD bets—they get goal-line carries.
Can a player score multiple touchdowns?
Yes! With anytime TD bets, your player just needs to score once to win. If they score 2 or 3 TDs, you still only win your original bet. For multi-TD props, look for "2+ TDs" or "3+ TDs" options which pay higher odds.
What's better: Anytime TD or First TD?
Anytime TD bets offer better win probability (25-40%) with lower payouts. First TD bets pay 3-5x more but hit less than 10% of the time. For consistent profits, anytime TDs are better. For lottery-style swings, first TDs offer bigger upside. Learn more on our first TD scorer guide.
How many anytime TD bets should I make per week?
Quality over quantity. Focus on 3-5 high-value bets per week rather than betting every game. Target players with positive expected value in favorable matchups. Use our weekly best bets page to find the top opportunities.
Should I bet favorites or underdogs?
Neither automatically. Focus on expected value, not odds. A -140 favorite can have positive EV if they have a true 62% TD probability. Similarly, a +180 underdog offers value at 38% true probability. Use our EV calculator to evaluate each bet.
Start Finding TD Value Today
You now have everything you need to succeed with anytime touchdown betting. Use our prediction model, compare odds, track the right stats, and focus on value over volume. Let's find some winners.
Bet Responsibly
All predictions, odds, and analysis on this page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Sports betting involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Never wager more than you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER for confidential support. Learn about responsible bankroll management and betting strategy.
Images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons under Creative Commons licensing. NFL team marks are trademarks of the National Football League and respective franchises. All odds data sourced from licensed sportsbook APIs for educational purposes. No commercial affiliation with the NFL or any team.